It now seems inevitable that the Nigeria international will move to Naples this summer, but it is by no means certain it is the right destination
You would have received long odds on the first real transfer saga of the summer involving a Nigerian player...but here we are.
There is one thing that is known about Victor Osimhen for sure. He will not begin the 2020/21 season with Lille, or in Ligue 1 for that matter. Les Dogues have a model that is hinged on buying low and selling high, and have reportedly begun to plan for a future without their sought-after number nine.
Where will he play then?
At this time, Napoli hold the best hand. They received Osimhen in Naples last week, ostensibly to hammer out personal terms, but as part of a charm offensive. Being a showbiz man, president Aurelio De Laurentiis knows a thing or two about entertaining in style.
And yet, doubts remain. Not least for the player himself, who has previously expressed admiration for Chelsea, and is reportedly holding out for interest from the Premier League.
Tottenham Hotspur enquired, but were rebuffed in the understanding that, with Harry Kane as club captain and first-choice centre-forward, playing opportunities would be scant. The truth, heartbreaking as it might be for Osimhen, is that none of England's top sides have a pressing need for a starting striker.
As such, it seems only a matter of time before the transfer to Napoli finally gets over the line.
That logically leads to the next consideration: just how good a move is it?
Well, it depends on what the indices are. In terms of history, Napoli is very attractive, both as a home and a launch pad for a number of great players down the years. Diego Maradona is the most obvious one, but even narrowing it down to just strikers – Careca, Edinson Cavani, Gonzalo Higuain, Dries Mertens – leads one to conclude there is a fine tradition there into which Osimhen can immerse himself.
The club's profile in Europe is also very respectable. Per Uefa's club coefficient, they are ranked 16th in Europe—just outside the true elite, but still one of the heavyweights. Make no mistake, there will be pressure at a club of this level, but perhaps not the cloying, intrusive kind that is characteristic of the likes of Barcelona and Manchester United, for instance.
Napoli is also a club that has shown a willingness to embrace its own. All the aforementioned forwards mentioned have enjoyed almost godlike adulation in Naples, and Osimhen's earnest play, work rate and humility would no doubt endear him to the Neapolitan crowd. "He will become their superstar," Lille president Gerard Lopez told La Voix De Nord.
That is not to say it is all positive, of course.
Despite a revival under Gennaro Gattuso, the club will not be playing Champions League football in 2020/21. That is far from a deal breaker, but it is an important stage for the very best players in Europe, and one on which Osimhen already excelled with a callow Lille side last year. In that sense, and that sense alone, the Europa League (if they qualify for that) would represent a real step down.
There is also a concern over the continued viability of the Napoli project.
For all his good work so far, it is simply impossible to accurately parse Gattuso's influence on the actual mechanics of the team's play. Sure, he has made them grittier and more solid defensively, and there seems a real calcification of their overall mental approach to the game.
That said, a lot of the play still draws heavily on the influence of former manager Maurizio Sarri. The combinations are not as crisp, of course, but the muscle memory remains, as does the system.
What happens when that wears out?
The timeline for this is short too, as a rebuild is afoot at Stadio San Paolo. The likes of Jose Callejon, Kalidou Koulibaly and Allan are set to depart; all were stalwarts under Sarri, steeped in his ways. Beyond the concomitant instability that is associated with the process of a rebuild, this drain could expose Gattuso's lack of an attacking strategy even more.
A look at the Expected Goals numbers for Serie A is revealing: Napoli have an xG of 49.9, a tally only good enough for sixth in the league. With few(er) chances created comes greater pressure on the centre-forward to be perfect, hardly an optimal situation for a young striker still learning his craft and figuring out how to best utilize his admittedly considerable gifts.
It is a potentially precarious situation into which Osimhen would be walking. However, the 21-year-old is nothing if not resilient; so far in his career, he has shown the capacity to rise to the level required, and the aptitude to learn quickly. As Lopez said, "Victor has the strength to perform under pressure."
It is a strength he will need to summon if he is to succeed in Italy. For all that Napoli are enamored with him now, there are enough caveats that suggest it might not be plain sailing all the way through.
